Rhino horn trafficking remains one of the most organised and persistent forms of wildlife crime, linking poaching in Africa to trafficking networks and consumer markets across Asia.
It is one of the crimes the Wildlife Justice Commission has pursued most intensively since our creation in 2015. Today, the picture is mixed: there has been significant disruption, but trafficking networks are adapting.
Encouraging progress for rhino populations
South Africa remains the centre of the global rhino poaching crisis, but recent years have seen encouraging reductions in poaching levels. In 2025, South Africa recorded the lowest number of rhinos poached in 15 years.
This decline suggests that anti-poaching initiatives, targeted investigations, and coordinated enforcement efforts are having a positive impact.
Enforcement pressure is disrupting the supply chain
The decline in poaching is driven in part by successful arrests and convictions of key figures across the rhino horn supply chain, from poaching bosses and brokers in Africa to transport facilitators and buyers in Asia. Some of the biggest and most consequential players in the global rhino horn trafficking business are being arrested, prosecuted, and convicted.
Sustained enforcement action has disrupted trafficking networks and increased the risks associated with the illegal trade.
Wildlife Justice’s intelligence indicates that traffickers are:
- operating with greater caution;
- taking stronger security measures than in previous years; and
- changing their behaviour because trafficking has become more difficult and risky.
Signs that trafficking networks are adapting
However, success in reducing poaching and putting kingpins behind bars does not mean the fight is over.
Since 2025, reports of rhino horn seizures have begun to increase again, with:
- more sophisticated concealment techniques.
Demand for rhino horn has not disappeared. Wildlife Justice investigations have also identified increasing levels of cooperation between criminal actors. By working together, traffickers can share costs, spread risk, and maintain access to supply in a more challenging environment.
The picture therefore is not one of a disappearing threat. Rather, it is a threat that continues to evolve in response to changing conditions. The trafficking landscape remains active, resilient, and capable of adapting to law enforcement pressure.
Emerging challenges ahead
Developments in South Africa concerning the potential international sale of captive-bred rhino horn could also influence the future trafficking landscape. If international trade is legalised, it could create new opportunities for criminal networks to launder illegally sourced horn through legitimate channels. While the long-term implications remain uncertain, there is no doubt that law enforcement agencies would face a more complex operating environment under such conditions.
What does this mean for the future?
The threat to rhinos today may be more constrained than it has been at any other point in the past 15 years. However, the continued adaptability of trafficking networks and potentially significant shifts in the policy landscape signal that our response must continue to evolve.
Sustained, intelligence-led enforcement pressure remains essential to prevent today’s progress from becoming tomorrow’s resurgence.
Looking ahead:
A new report on the rhino horn trafficking landscape is coming in 2027, updating our 2022 Global Threat Assessment, and examining progress, changes, and new criminal dynamics since its publication.
